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Prediction for CME (2024-04-23T09:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-23T09:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30250/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M3.0 flare from Active Region 13654 (S06E41) starting around 2024-04-23T08:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A small EUV wave is visible moving NE from the source, and post-eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2024-04-23T10:30Z in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. Arrival signature is characterized by an initial jump in solar wind speed from around 300->370 km/s alongside a jump in temperature, and a slow rise in Btotal and density starting around 2024-04-26T01:08Z, reaching a total of around 9.7 nT. Bz is predominantly southward reaching around -9nT. In the bulk speed and proton density the shock is well defined.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-26T00:17Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-26T22:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 29.97 hour(s)
Difference: -21.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-04-24T18:19Z

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